Researchers have developed a tool for predicting individualized risk of local recurrence after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The tool integrates 10 clinicopathologic variables to assist patients and their healthcare professionals decide among various treatment options with the goal of reducing over- and undertreatment of noninvasive breast cancer.
Rudloff and colleagues at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York identified 1868 consecutive women treated for DCIS with BCS between 1991 and 2006. They created a nomogram that estimated the probability of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence at 5 and 10 years after BCS. Bootstrap resampling showed the nomogram to have good calibration and discrimination, with concordance index of 0.707 and concordance probability estimate of 0.686. Of the 10 clinicopathologic variables, adjuvant radiotherapy, age, margin status, number of excisions, and treatment time period were of the greatest influence on risk.